How Will Portugal’s Political Crisis Affect Immigration?

Portugal’s government has fallen, leading to new elections on May 18. This crisis raises questions about how immigration processes will be affected. As the country goes through this political change, employers and international talent looking to relocate to Portugal should stay informed about possible developments that may affect their plans.

Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening and what it means for businesses looking to relocate employees to Portugal.

What Happened in Portugal?

The minority government led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro lost a vote of confidence in Parliament, triggering its resignation. This political crisis was triggered by a scandal concerning Montenegro’s active involvement in a consultancy firm owned by his family, which led to accusations of conflict of interest.

Although the final decision to destitute the Government was made by the President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, he has already confirmed new elections on May 18. The new government is expected to take office by mid-June.

According to Portugal’s constitution, this means the government will now operate in a caretaker mode, handling only essential tasks until a new government is formed after the elections.

This will be Portugal’s third election in three years, reflecting ongoing political instability. The country’s last election was held in 2024 due to the resignation of previous Prime Minister António Costa, shortly after his political cabinet was accused of money laundering and abuse of power. With the current crisis, the two strongest political parties in Portugal are now surrounded by controversy. As so, the outcome of the elections and the future layout of the parliament is, right now, uncertain.

How Does This Affect Immigration Processes?

For Portuguese employers and international workers, the immediate impact is limited. The caretaker government will continue to manage day-to-day operations, including immigration processes. Here’s what you need to know:

1. Current Immigration Backlog

The Agency for Integration, Migration, and Asylum (AIMA) is still processing over 900,000 immigration cases. Most of the 440,000 residency applications submitted through the “manifestation of interest” process have already been reviewed. However, many applicants are still waiting for their residency cards, with no specific timeline for delivery. Delays are expected to continue until the new government takes office.

For employers hiring foreign talent, this means that work visa and residency permit processing times may remain slow in the short term. If you’re planning to relocate employees to Portugal, it’s important to start the application process as early as possible.

2. CPLP Citizens and Work Visas

Citizens of Portuguese-speaking countries (CPLP) are currently being prioritized in the residency application process. This includes workers from countries like Brazil, Angola, and Mozambique. If you’re hiring from these countries, your employees can benefit from faster processing times compared to other nationalities.

However, a new law allowing CPLP citizens to apply for residency while already in Portugal has not yet been regulated. For now, CPLP citizens must still obtain a work visa before entering the country. 

3. Immigration Regularization Processing Times

Visa applications, especially for non-EU citizens, have been facing significant delays. In some cases, visas are taking over 200 days to be approved. The caretaker government has recently added 50 new staff to consulates in high-demand areas, such as São Paulo, to help reduce these delays. However, employers should still expect longer processing times in the coming months.

Discussions were held about the possibility of fast-track applications for key commercial sectors. However, this is unlikely to happen under the current government. Currently, the only fast-track procedures implemented concern the taskforce "estrutura de missão", which is expected to be active until june 2025.

4. Family Reunification

Family reunification cases, which allow employees to bring their families to Portugal, are currently on hold. These applications were not included in the initial regularization process and will likely remain delayed until the new government takes office. 

5. Immigration Documents Remain Valid in Portugal

Regardless of the new government’s approach, according to Law Decree 41-A/2024, all immigration documents must be considered valid in Portugal until June 2025.

The new government's approach so far has been to safeguard and continue all active relocations taking place since 2020, therefore, future changes shouldn't compromise ongoing relocations.

6. Lei da Nacionalidade (Citizenship)

The ongoing discussions to update and regulate the procedures for the citizenship application will most likely be postponed and addressed once a new government takes over.

What Could Change After the Elections?

The election outcome could significantly impact Portugal’s immigration policies. Here’s what different scenarios might mean:

1. If the Centre-Right AD Wins

The Aliança Democrática (AD), currently leading the government under Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, has taken a more restrictive approach to immigration. If AD retains power, employers can expect:

• Stricter Work Visa Requirements: AD has already revoked the policy allowing non-EU citizens to move to Portugal without a pre-existing job contract. This requirement is likely to remain in place.
• Reduced Immigration Flexibility: AD has pledged to end the “wide-open doors” immigration policy, wanting to reduce abuse of Portugal’s welcoming stance toward migrants.
• Balanced Approach: While AD recognizes the need for foreign workers, it wants stricter control over immigration flows, which could mean more bureaucracy for employers.

2. If the Centre-Left PS Wins

The Partido Socialista (PS), now in opposition, has proposed measures to streamline and accelerate the regularization of immigrants. A PS victory could lead to:

• Faster Processing Times: PS has suggested creating alternative methods for regularizing workers without requiring them to return to their country of origin.
• Job-Seeking Visa Changes: PS has proposed mandatory registration with the Employment and Vocational Training Institute for job-seeking visa holders, which could help match workers with employers more efficiently.
• 30-Day Visa Deadline: PS advocates for a 30-day deadline to issue residence visas when companies guarantee access to housing, professional training, and Portuguese language education.

3. If There’s a PS-PSD Coalition

An unlikely coalition between PS (Partido Socialista) and PSD (Partido Social Democrata) would likely result in a more moderate approach to immigration policy, balancing economic needs with stricter controls. Here's how this scenario might unfold:

• Balanced Approach: A PS-PSD coalition would likely take a middle ground on immigration, combining PS's more open stance with PSD's preference for tighter controls. This could mean making regularization processes more efficient while keeping some restrictions in place.
• Economic Focus: Both parties see the economic benefits of immigration, so the coalition might work to attract and keep skilled workers through specific programs. 
• Integration and Public Opinion: The coalition would need to address public concerns about immigration while strengthening integration efforts. This could mean stronger anti-discrimination policies and better support for newcomers, including reception, training, and other assistance. Handling public opinion and pressure from parties like Chega would be an important challenge.

4. If Far-Right Chega Gains Influence

Chega, a far-right party, has consistently taken a strong anti-immigration stance. If Chega gains significant influence in the new government, employers could face:

• Stricter Immigration Controls: Chega has linked immigration with crime and opposes immigration more strongly than other parties. This could lead to tighter border controls and reduced support for immigrants.
• Migration Quotas: Chega has proposed a referendum on migration quotas, which could limit the number of foreign workers entering Portugal.
• Increased Bureaucracy: Employers may face more hurdles in hiring and relocating international talent if Chega’s policies are adopted.

What Should Employers Do Now?

While the political situation evolves, employers should:

• Stay Informed: Keep up with updates from AIMA and other official sources to understand how the election results might affect your hiring and relocation plans.
• Plan Ahead: If you’re considering relocating employees to Portugal, start the visa application process early to account for potential delays.
• Seek Expert Help: Work with local experts who can guide you through Portugal’s immigration regulations and support you through political changes.

Conclusion

Portugal’s upcoming elections add some uncertainty to the immigration process, but for now, the caretaker government is maintaining routine operations. Employers should stay informed and plan ahead to ensure a smooth relocation process for their international talent. As the political scenario shifts, we’ll keep you updated on any changes that could affect your business.

‍If you’re planning to hire and relocate employees to Portugal, talk to our team today to explore how we can support your needs during this transitional period.